Florida has never elected a Black statewide official in 181 years. Angie Nixon trails by 4 points.

No Black candidate has won a statewide election in Florida in the state’s 181 years. On Nov. 3, Democrat Angie Nixon could be the first, and the latest University of North Florida poll has her four points behind Republican Sen. Ashley Moody, 49% to 45%, with 5% undecided.

Nixon, 42, is a state representative from Jacksonville. She won the Democratic nomination in August by nearly 12 points over Alex Vindman, in a primary where she was outspent 16 to 1. If she wins, she would also be Florida’s first Black U.S. senator. Republican Byron Donalds, running for governor, could also become the first Black statewide winner, so the barrier falls in either party if either wins.

The poll, of 1,471 likely voters surveyed Oct. 12 to 19, has a margin of error of 2.81 points, so the race is within reach. Moody led by 8 points in the university’s earlier survey. Independents favor Nixon by 15 points, the pollsters found.

The gap in money is the other number. As of late July, Moody had raised more than $11 million. Nixon had raised $975,000. Moody’s ads call Nixon a socialist, pointing to her June membership in the Democratic Socialists of America. Nixon has said she will not “trade our campaign’s grassroots independence for anyone’s approval.”

Black voters back her heavily. A Mason-Dixon poll found them favoring Nixon 81% to 10%, and a St. Pete Polls survey put it at 67% to 14%, with 14% undecided. What polls cannot say is how many will vote. In Duval County, which includes Jacksonville, 40.8% of registered Black voters cast ballots in the 2022 midterms, against 59.2% of white voters.

That is the work Black churches in Northeast Florida are doing now. Rev. Christopher McKee of Church of Oakland hosted a “Vote is Sacred” bus tour. Rev. Jarrett Washington of Saint Stephen AME Church said the biggest problem is “voter mobilization having an actual plan to vote.”

Access matters too. Fourteen of Duval County’s 24 early voting sites sit inside the I-295 beltway, which serves the urban core. Early voting is open on Sunday, Oct. 25 and Sunday, Nov. 1. The second Sunday was added after the Jacksonville NAACP and other civil rights groups pressed for it.

The Cook Political Report rated the race Solid Republican after the primary. Florida Republicans outnumber Democrats by 1.5 million registered voters. Early voting continues through Nov. 1 in Duval County, and polls close Nov. 3.