Michigan votes Tuesday on a U.S. Senate seat that could decide control of the chamber, and the final stretch of the race is being fought over Black voters. Republican Mike Rogers and his allies are targeting the lead Democrat Abdul El-Sayed holds among them, after Black voters shifted toward Republicans in 2024.
A Marist poll conducted Oct. 15 to 18 put El-Sayed at 50% and Rogers at 48% among likely voters, inside its 4.3-point margin of error. A Marist survey reported this week found El-Sayed 14 points ahead among non-white voters, a group that includes Black Michiganders but is not limited to them. Democrats need to pick up four seats to win the Senate, which makes Michigan, where Democrat Gary Peters is retiring, a seat they cannot afford to lose.
The Rogers side is arguing about attention. A group called Democrats for Mike Rogers, backed by a Republican-aligned PAC, has run ads featuring Black Michiganders criticizing El-Sayed. This week it posted on X: “There are 15 foreign countries mentioned on Abdul’s policy page. Over 5,000 words. Not a word about plans for Black Michiganders.”
El-Sayed’s campaign points to his work as health director in Detroit and Wayne County. Last month he joined former Vice President Kamala Harris at a Detroit birth center for a roundtable on Black maternal health. He is running on Medicare for All and on putting money in people’s pockets.
Where the health care records differ
Health care is the issue on which the two candidates’ public records are easiest to compare.
Rogers, 63, a former FBI agent who chaired the House Intelligence Committee during 14 years in Congress, voted repeatedly to repeal the Affordable Care Act. He has called the 2025 Republican budget law, which included Medicaid cuts, “a monumental victory for working families.” He also opposed extending the enhanced ACA tax credits that Congress let lapse, Michigan Advance reported.
In March, Rogers floated ending no-cost preventive care and moving sicker patients into separate “catastrophic” insurance pools. “If you go up and have to pay the doctor $50 for your annual physical, that’s probably okay, right?” he said, as Bridge Michigan reported. University of Michigan researchers told the outlet that even modest cost-sharing reduces use of preventive services. His communications director said Rogers is “exploring ideas with voters to increase affordability,” and pointed to proposals on rural hospital investment and price transparency.
El-Sayed, 41, has never held elected office. He lost the 2018 Democratic primary for governor to Gretchen Whitmer, then won this year’s Senate primary by narrowly beating Rep. Haley Stevens despite more than $60 million in outside spending. His Medicare for All proposal would move the country toward a public insurance system.
Rogers lost his first Senate bid two years ago by about 19,000 votes out of more than 5.5 million cast. A margin that small is why both campaigns are working for every Black vote, in Detroit and beyond.
Polls are open Tuesday, Nov. 3. Election officials will report the count as it comes in, and a race this close may not be settled that night.
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